President Donald Trump is warning that the U.S. could face a $2 trillion catastrophe if the Supreme Court rules against his authority to impose emergency tariffs. But according to official data, the government has collected only about $100 billion in tariffs since he took office — and most of that money ultimately came from American companies and consumers, not foreign governments.
In a fiery Truth Social post on Monday, Trump lashed out at his critics. “The ‘Pay Back’ Numbers being quoted by the Radical Left Lunatics, who would love to see us lose on Tariffs because of how bad it would be for our Country, are much higher than those being stated by our Fake Opposition,” he wrote. “The actual Number we would have to pay back in Tariff Revenue and Investments would be in excess of $2 Trillion Dollars, and that, in itself, would be a National Security catastrophe.”
Trump’s argument appears aimed at framing the pending Supreme Court decision as an economic doomsday scenario — one that would devastate the country if the justices limit his powers. “They are giving low Numbers so that the Court will think it is easy to get out of this terrible situation that these Anarchists and Thugs have put us into!” he added.
But the numbers don’t seem to support his warning. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Fox News recently that the U.S. has collected only around $100 billion in tariff revenue under Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs — a figure that’s nowhere near the $2 trillion the president is now citing.
Still, Trump floated the idea of returning some of that money directly to Americans, suggesting a “dividend of at least $2000 a person,” which he claimed could total around $326 billion. It’s a populist twist that plays well politically, even if it undermines the scale of the loss he’s predicting.
The Supreme Court is preparing to decide whether Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs exceeded his legal authority. A ruling against him could force the government to refund some tariff revenue to affected companies, but experts say the amount in question would likely be in the tens of billions — not trillions.
In the end, Trump’s $2 trillion warning seems less like a serious economic projection and more like a political maneuver — a familiar mix of alarm, bravado, and populist spin aimed at turning a legal fight into another rallying cry.
