Ohio’s governor’s race is suddenly a nail-biter. Democrat Amy Acton, the former Ohio Department of Health director, is now virtually tied with Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, according to a new Emerson College poll published Thursday.
Acton holds 46 percent support, just a hair ahead of Ramaswamy at 45 percent, while 9 percent of voters remain undecided. The gap is well within the survey’s margin of error of 3.3 points, making this one of the closest showings in the race so far.
The numbers represent a sharp shift from August. “The August Emerson College poll found women voters split between Ramaswamy and Acton, 44% to 42%, and men breaking for Ramaswamy 54% to 36%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Four months later, men still support Ramaswamy by about 20 points, 55% to 35%, but women have shifted toward Acton, breaking for her 56% to 37%.”
Acton’s gain has been striking — a 7-point jump since the last survey — while Ramaswamy has slipped 4 points. Political analysts say the change underscores how women voters and younger voters under 30 are reshaping the state’s political map. Kimball noted, “Ohio voters who did not participate in the 2024 election, most of whom are under 30, are more likely to identify as Republicans rather than Democrats. In addition, 31% of voters under 30 align with independents or Democrats, while 38% identify with Republicans, though this group still breaks for Democrats on the ballot by about 12 points. Democrats hold a larger advantage among voters in their 30s than among under 30, further indicating shifting political dynamics within the Ohio electorate.”
The Senate race is tighter, but slightly favors Republicans. Incumbent Jon Husted (R-Ohio) leads former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) 49 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Brown has inched up by two points since August, while Husted has lost a point.
Voters’ top concerns are clear. The economy leads at 44 percent, followed by threats to democracy at 13 percent, healthcare at 11 percent, housing affordability at 9 percent, and immigration at 8 percent. On mass deportations, 53 percent of voters see them as beneficial for Ohio, down from 57 percent in August, while 47 percent see them as harmful, up from 43 percent. When asked which party they trust more to make Ohio more affordable, 43 percent chose Republicans, 37 percent picked Democrats, and 19 percent trusted neither.
Meanwhile, national politics linger over the race. President Donald Trump’s Ohio approval rating is at 46 percent, with disapproval at 48 percent, reflecting a three-point drop in approval and a six-point rise in disapproval since August. Gov. Mike DeWine’s approval rating sits at 26 percent, down six points, with a 45 percent disapproval, up five points.
The Ohio gubernatorial contest, once considered a safe Republican seat with Ramaswamy’s early momentum, has turned volatile. With women and younger voters increasingly leaning toward Democrats and the economy driving voter concerns, the coming months could redefine Ohio politics ahead of the 2026 elections.
