Vice President Kamala Harris has regained a 4-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a recent national poll conducted by ABC News and Ipsos. The survey, carried out from October 18 to 22, shows Harris leading Trump among likely voters 51% to 47%. Among registered voters, her lead narrows slightly to 49% compared to Trump’s 47%.
Harris initially held a similar 4-point advantage over Trump in early August, with 49% support. Her lead grew to 5 points in late August and mid-September polls, where she garnered 51% to Trump’s 46%. However, the most recent survey indicated a tightening race, with Harris leading by just 2 points, 50% to 48%.
Notably, among independent voters, Harris has a slim 1-point edge at 48% to 47%. This demographic previously favored President Biden by a substantial 13 points in the 2020 election.
Harris’s support among demographic groups reveals significant disparities. Among likely female voters, she boasts a commanding 14-point advantage, leading 56% to 42%. Conversely, Trump leads among likely male voters by 6 points, with 51% to Harris’s 45%.
In terms of racial demographics, Harris enjoys a staggering 83-point lead among Black likely voters, capturing 90% to Trump’s 7%. She also leads Hispanic likely voters by 30 points, 64% to 34%. However, Trump holds an 11-point lead among white voters, 54% to 43%.
Educational attainment plays a critical role in voter preferences: Harris leads by 22 points among those with college degrees while Trump leads Harris by 11 points among non-college-educated white voters. The divide is pronounced among white voters without college degrees, where Trump has a 41-point advantage among white men and a 26-point lead among white women.
The poll surveyed 2,808 adults, including 2,392 registered voters and 1,913 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points overall and 2.5 percentage points for likely voters.
