Republicans are in full meltdown mode over their base’s alarming nap schedule. A series of humiliating election results has party operatives waving red flags about what one called a “sleepy GOP base” while Democrats show up firing on all cylinders, outperforming even Kamala Harris’ 2024 numbers by double digits.
In 20 state legislative special elections this year, Democrats averaged 10.5 points ahead of Harris’ prior performance, with last year’s 67 state races showing a nearly 14-point overperformance. Texas alone delivered a blow: Democrat Taylor Rehmet snagged a 14-point win in a North Texas state Senate seat Trump had carried by 17 points in 2024. Louisiana wasn’t any kinder: Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez crushed expectations with a 24-point victory in a district Trump had won by 13 points.
Even “safe” Republican territories are turning sketchy. In north-central Oklahoma, a Republican squeaked out a 28-point win—trailing Trump’s 58-point margin just two years ago. Northern and Central Virginia, New York City, east-central Minnesota, and southeastern Connecticut all registered GOP underperformance by double digits.
Not everyone’s losing their heads. Mason Di Palma from the Republican State Leadership Committee shrugged off the panic, telling Axios, “Let’s not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake. They are unique, low-turnout contests driven by highly localized factors”.
But GOP panic isn’t just about turnout. President Trump’s approval ratings are taking hits from multiple angles. Aggressive immigration enforcement—including two fatal shootings of U.S. citizens in Minneapolis—has slashed his net approval on immigration from +11 to -11 points, and his economy rating plunged from +12 to -23, according to YouGov/Economist polling. Key voter groups—young men, Hispanics, and non-college-educated Americans—are drifting away.
The stakes are getting real. Two GOP strategists told reporters that holding the Senate majority in November is now far from guaranteed. One operative admitted, “A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate. Today, I would have to tell you it’s far less certain.”
This isn’t just a warning shot—it’s a siren. Democrats are showing up energized, and Republicans are relying on a base that looks increasingly like it’d rather binge Netflix than vote. Unless the party wakes it up fast, the midterms could turn into a bloodbath.
