Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson has pulled narrowly ahead of Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, according to a new AARP poll.
Jackson leads Collins 50% to 47% among likely voters, giving the Democrat a three-point edge in a race that could have major implications for control of the Senate. The poll has a margin of error of about 3.1 percentage points, meaning the race remains essentially a toss-up.
Still, the numbers are notable.
The AARP survey found that 50% of voters said they were definitely, probably or leaning toward voting for Jackson if the election were held that day, compared with 47% for Collins. Another 3% either supported another candidate or remained undecided.
And there’s an interesting wrinkle hiding inside the numbers.
Collins actually leads Jackson among voters 50 and older — 53% to 44%. That matters in Maine, where older voters make up a large share of the electorate and are particularly motivated to vote. Eighty-seven percent of voters 50 and older rated their motivation to vote a 10 out of 10.
So while Jackson has the overall lead, Collins is still holding a significant advantage among one of the state’s most reliable voting blocs.
The race has already gone through a dramatic shake-up on the Democratic side.
Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner dropped out in July following allegations of sexual assault. Jackson was selected at a special convention to replace him.
Collins, meanwhile, is seeking a sixth term and remains a formidable opponent despite the increasingly competitive race.
Maine voted for Kamala Harris by seven points in the 2024 presidential election, while Trump remains unpopular in the state. But Collins has historically been able to outperform the broader Republican ticket, and the AARP poll shows her still leading comfortably among voters 50 and older.
The Senate race is now one of the closely watched contests that could help determine which party controls the chamber next year.
And the latest polling suggests Collins is going to have to fight for it.
The AARP poll also found Democrat Hannah Pingree leading Republican Bobby Charles in Maine’s gubernatorial race, 52% to 39%, with independent Rick Bennett at 6%.
The survey was conducted Sept. 20-22 among 982 likely Maine voters by the bipartisan polling firms Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. The margin of error was approximately 3.1 percentage points.
