The Cook Political Report has shifted North Carolina’s presidential race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” reflecting a tightening contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
In a Tuesday analysis, Cook Editor-In-Chief Amy Walter highlighted that despite a strong initial lead, President Joe Biden was trailing Trump by nearly seven points before dropping out of the race in late July. “Today, however, North Carolina is proving to be more competitive than ever,” Walter stated.
According to recent polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, Harris and Trump are now neck-and-neck, each drawing about 45.7 percent support. Walter noted that Trump’s position has remained stable since Biden’s exit, but Harris has made significant gains, improving by seven points compared to Biden’s standing. As of July 21, the day Biden withdrew, Trump led Biden 45.6 percent to 38.7 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Walter explained that the race is tightening primarily because Harris is consolidating Democratic and independent support rather than directly pulling votes away from Trump.
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This development comes as a boost for Harris in North Carolina, a state Biden failed to win in 2020. Last week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified North Carolina from “leans Republican” to “toss-up,” although it expressed skepticism about the state turning blue.
A polling index by multiple media outlets currently shows Harris with a narrow 1.1 percentage point lead over Trump in North Carolina. Additionally, a recent Televisa/Univision Consumer Strategy & Insights/Media Predict poll reveals Harris leading Trump 56 percent to 34 percent among Hispanic likely voters in the state.
Since taking over the Democratic presidential ticket, Harris has significantly reduced Trump’s previous lead, posing a substantial challenge in what was once considered a stronghold for Republicans.
However, some political analysts caution against premature conclusions, suggesting that Harris’s momentum may face fluctuations as the November election approaches.
