The election handicapper Cook Political Report has updated its ratings for Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, shifting them from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” as Vice President Kamala Harris closes the polling gap with former President Donald Trump.
In early July, when President Joe Biden was still in the race, these states were considered solidly in Trump’s corner. However, recent polling shows Harris has gained significant ground, with some surveys even putting her slightly ahead of Trump. As a result, these pivotal battlegrounds are now categorized as highly competitive.
Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter explained the shift, stating, “For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are facing challenges. Unforced errors from Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance have shifted the media focus from Biden’s age to Trump’s vulnerabilities.”
Walter highlighted that the presidential race has transitioned from one where Trump appeared to have a decisive edge to a more competitive scenario. She referenced polling averages from FiveThirtyEight, which show a dramatic shift since Biden’s exit from the race on July 21. While Trump previously held leads of several points in these states, those leads have now dwindled.
In Georgia, Trump’s average lead has shrunk from 5.9 points to just 1 point. In Arizona, his advantage has decreased from 5.5 points to 1.9 points. Nevada’s polling data is less comprehensive, but recent CBS and Bloomberg polls indicate Harris is leading by 2 points.
These states now join Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as toss-ups in Cook’s latest analysis. This development follows a similar move by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which also adjusted its ratings for Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Georgia in Harris’s favor.
Republican allies argue that Harris’s recent boost is a temporary phenomenon, pointing to challenges she may face as the campaign progresses. “Republicans contend that Harris is enjoying a brief surge that may not endure, especially as the focus shifts from her current campaign to broader issues like inflation and dissatisfaction with the status quo,” Walter noted.
In summary, while the Democratic outlook has improved significantly in recent weeks, Trump is still perceived as a formidable opponent. The race remains highly competitive and fluid, with both sides actively campaigning to sway undecided voters.
