If Barack Obama and Donald Trump could face off in a 2028 presidential election, Obama would win—and by a lot.
A new poll from Daily Mail and J.L. Partners shows Obama crushing Trump in a head-to-head matchup, leading 52% to 41% among registered voters. That’s an 11-point lead.
Obama’s support was especially strong among key voter groups. He won 73% of Hispanic voters, 68% of Black voters, and 50% of Independents, compared to Trump’s 39% with Independents.
The poll surveyed 1,013 registered voters across the country. Though the match-up is purely hypothetical—since the 22nd Amendment bars any president from serving more than two terms—Trump has continued to float the idea of a third run.
“A lot of people want me to do it,” Trump told NBC News in March. “But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.”
To change the Constitution would take a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate and approval from 38 states. Still, some Republicans don’t seem bothered by the legal wall.
While Obama trounced Trump in this hypotetical match-up, Trump came out ahead when the same poll asked about other familiar Democrats. Against Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton, Trump narrowly won.
This isn’t the first time a poll has shown Obama beating Trump. A previous Overton Insights survey conducted in late March also showed Obama ahead—though by a slimmer 6-point margin: 53% to 47%.
Obama may be out of office, but among many voters, his popularity clearly isn’t going anywhere.
Could this matchup actually happen?
The short answer: no—at least not without a massive change.
The 22nd Amendment clearly blocks any president from serving more than two terms, and there’s little political will to scrap it. But this poll shows one thing clearly: Obama still holds a powerful place in voters’ minds.
If the past decade has taught us anything about U.S. politics, it’s that nothing is ever completely impossible.
