Signs of mounting trouble for Republicans are growing clearer, as another senior GOP lawmaker heads for the exits and party leaders brace for steep losses in the upcoming midterm elections.
Sam Graves, a 13-term Republican and chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, announced Friday that he will retire at the end of his term—making him the latest high-profile departure in what has become a historic exodus from the party.
“It’s time to pass the torch and allow a new guard of conservative leaders to step forward,” Graves said, calling the decision difficult but necessary.
His departure comes as a record number of House Republicans abandon their seats. At least 36 GOP lawmakers have already said they will not seek reelection—marking the highest number of retirements in nearly a century and surpassing the previous record set in 2018, a cycle that ended with Democrats reclaiming control of the House.
According to Harry Enten, the trend is a major warning sign for the party.
“House Republicans are running for the exits faster than kids do on the final day of school,” Enten said, pointing to the unprecedented number of retirements. “You don’t run for the exits unless, you know, trouble is brewing—and House Republicans so far believe trouble is absolutely brewing.”
Historical data backs up that concern. Enten noted that in midterm elections since 1982, the party with fewer retirements has gone on to win control of the House 80 percent of the time. This cycle, far fewer Democrats are stepping down compared to Republicans—an imbalance that could spell serious trouble for the GOP.
“When one side runs for the exits, they lose the House of Representatives,” Enten explained. “When one side stays put, it’s because they think something good is going to happen.”
Graves’ exit is particularly notable given his influential role in overseeing major transportation issues, including investigations into the deadly Boeing 737 Max crashes and efforts to strengthen aviation safety regulations. His retirement adds to growing concerns about a leadership vacuum as experienced lawmakers depart at a critical moment.
With retirements continuing to mount and political headwinds intensifying, Republicans are increasingly signaling a lack of confidence in their prospects. As the midterms approach, the message from within the GOP appears unmistakable: trouble isn’t just brewing—it may already be here.
Watch Enten’s analysis below:
