President Donald Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Texas just got another dose of bad news, and this time, it’s coming from a conservative poll.
Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued Texas attorney general Trump backed over longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, is now trailing Democrat James Talarico in yet another survey ahead of November’s pivotal midterm election.
According to a new poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, Talarico leads Paxton 47% to 45% among likely Texas voters.
It’s not an isolated result.
The survey marks the third consecutive poll showing Talarico with the advantage. Last week, Fox News found the Democrat ahead by three points, 51% to 48%, while a Texas Public Opinion Research survey also showed Talarico leading, 45% to 40%.
The numbers are raising fresh questions about whether Trump’s endorsement backfired.
Several Republicans warned during the primary that replacing Cornyn with Paxton could put a traditionally safe GOP Senate seat at risk. Now, those fears appear to be getting harder to dismiss as multiple polls show the race slipping away from Republicans.
Paxton enters the general election carrying years of political baggage.
The Texas attorney general was impeached by fellow Republicans over allegations that included fraud and obstruction of justice. He’s also faced long-running corruption accusations, and last year his wife filed for divorce on what she described as “biblical grounds.”
The latest poll suggests those controversies may be taking a toll.
Fifty-seven percent of likely voters view Paxton unfavorably, compared with 47% for Talarico.
Even more concerning for Republicans, Paxton appears to be underperforming with key voting blocs.
Among white voters, he leads Talarico by just 14 points, far below the margin Trump posted with white Texans in the 2024 election. And among Hispanic voters, Talarico now holds a commanding 57% to 38% lead.
Appearing on The Rachel Maddow Show Monday, Talarico didn’t hold back.
“I didn’t think it was possible to find a candidate worse than Ted Cruz, but I think we found him in Ken Paxton,” he said.
Calling Paxton “one of the most corrupt” politicians in the country, Talarico pointed to the attorney general’s impeachment by fellow Republicans, FBI whistleblower allegations from members of his own staff, and even joked that Paxton’s “family dog” might soon defect to his campaign.
Paxton’s team brushed off the polling.
“The only poll that matters is the election on Nov. 3,” adviser Nick Maddux told Axios, predicting Talarico’s campaign would end “exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas—a pipe dream.”
Whether that’s true will become clear in November.
But for now, Trump’s chosen candidate is staring at an uncomfortable reality: three straight polls—including one from a conservative source—show him on the wrong side of the race.
