Democrats are getting a fresh boost heading into the final stretch of the midterm elections. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted 19 House races in Democrats’ direction, with the latest ratings suggesting the party now has a clear path to taking control of the chamber.
The updated analysis, published Friday, comes less than two weeks before Election Day and puts Democrats in a stronger position in several competitive districts currently held by Republicans.
Among the most notable changes, six Republican-held seats previously rated “Toss Up” have moved to “Lean Democrat.” Those include districts represented by Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Jen Kiggans of Virginia, and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, among others.
That’s a significant change in the race for House control, where just a handful of seats could determine which party holds the majority.
“Following this latest round of ratings changes, Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House,” Cook Political Report House editor Erin Covey wrote.
Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, according to the analysis, while 17 races remain pure toss-ups.
The ratings shift also puts two open seats — Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District and Texas’s 35th District — into the toss-up category after both had previously been rated “Lean Republican.”
In Kentucky, Democrat Zach Dembo is facing Republican Ralph Alvarado. In Texas, Democrat Johnny Garcia is competing against Republican Carlos De La Cruz.
Those races add to the list of contests that could help determine control of the House.
Cook’s latest analysis projects that Democrats’ most likely outcome is flipping between 12 and 22 seats. Under that scenario, Democrats would hold between 227 and 237 seats in the next Congress, while Republicans would hold between 198 and 208.
Those are projections, not guaranteed results, and the 17 toss-up races leave plenty of uncertainty in the final days of the campaign.
The ratings update comes as President Donald Trump’s approval numbers have fallen to record lows in recent polls from The New York Times and Siena University, as well as CNN.
A New York Times/Siena poll reported Tuesday that Trump’s approval rating had dropped to 36 percent — the lowest recorded in the poll’s history.
CNN’s poll put his approval rating even lower, at 32 percent, also a historic low for the outlet’s polling. Voters expressed broad dissatisfaction with the economy and the overall direction of the country.
