A New Jersey special election just delivered yet another overperformance by Democrats, and even CNN’s numbers guy couldn’t sugarcoat how bad it’s looking for the GOP.
Progressive organizer Analilia Mejia crushed Republican Joe Hathaway in the race for New Jersey’s 11th District seat — a seat that opened up after former Rep. Mikie Sherrill stepped aside to run for governor. The result came fast, with Mejia declared the winner just minutes after polls closed.
The impact? Immediate. Republicans are now clinging to a razor-thin House majority — down to a single vote.
But the bigger story isn’t just one race. It’s the pattern.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten pointed out that this marks the seventh straight contest where Democrats have beaten expectations by double digits. Not squeakers. Not marginal wins. We’re talking consistent, significant overperformance.
And it’s happening alongside a sharp drop in Donald Trump’s standing with voters. According to Enten, Trump’s approval rating has plunged by **20 points since late March — a collapse that’s lining up almost perfectly with these election results.
Enten didn’t mince words when reacting on air.
“It’s an absolute disaster,” he said during an appearance on The Source with Kaitlan Collins.
That’s not spin. That’s a data analyst looking at the numbers and calling it exactly what it is.
And if Republicans think Trump is going to stabilize things, Enten threw cold water on that idea too.
Trump recently took a swipe at New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, posting on Truth Social that Mamdani is “ruining” the city with high taxes. The usual playbook — attack, label, move on.
But here’s the problem: it’s not landing.
According to polling cited by Enten, Mamdani still holds majority support among voters. In other words, Trump’s attacks aren’t weakening his targets — they’re just adding more noise.
“Trump is out to lunch on this,” Enten said.
That’s the disconnect in plain terms.
Republicans are leaning into a strategy that isn’t moving voters, while Democrats are quietly stacking wins — and beating expectations while they do it.
One race might not mean much. Seven in a row? That’s a flashing red warning light. And right now, the GOP doesn’t look like it has a plan to turn it off.
Watch the analysis below:
